Republican Swing States 2028

This page contains information on the Republican battleground. The page has two main sections - Targets and Defence. Target states are states which the Republican Party need to win (ordered from easiest to most difficult). Defence states are states which the Republican Party currently hold and need to keep.

Contents

Here are the calculated target swing states for the Republican Party in 2028:

Targets

Starting Electoral Votes: 312

RankStateNameMajority
Over R
Majority
%
Swing
Needed
EVEV
(sum)
1. NH New Hampshire 22,965 2.78% 1.39% 4 316
2. MN Minnesota 137,947 4.24% 2.12% 10 326
3. NE Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 14,636 4.59% 2.30% 1 327
4. VA Virginia 259,681 5.77% 2.88% 13 340
5. NJ New Jersey 252,498 5.91% 2.95% 14 354
6. NM New Mexico 55,411 6.00% 3.00% 5 359
7. ME Maine 57,675 6.94% 3.47% 2 361
8. IL Illinois 613,784 10.90% 5.45% 19 380
9. CO Colorado 350,718 10.98% 5.49% 10 390
10. NY New York 1,040,296 12.59% 6.30% 28 418
11. RI Rhode Island 70,750 13.78% 6.89% 4 422
12. OR Oregon 321,120 14.31% 7.15% 8 430
13. CT Connecticut 255,135 14.50% 7.25% 7 437
14. DE Delaware 75,407 14.70% 7.35% 3 440
15. WA Washington 714,926 18.22% 9.11% 12 452
16. CA California 3,194,482 20.13% 10.07% 54 506
17. ME Maine's 1st Congressional District 93,649 21.59% 10.80% 1 507
18. HI Hawaii 119,383 23.10% 11.55% 4 511
19. MA Massachusetts 875,215 25.20% 12.60% 11 522
20. MD Maryland 867,027 28.54% 14.27% 10 532
21. VT Vermont 116,396 31.51% 15.75% 3 535
22. DC District of Columbia 273,109 83.81% 41.90% 3 538

Here are the currently held Republican states:

Defence

Starting Electoral Votes: 312

RankStateNameMajority%
Majority
Swing
To Defeat
EVEV
(sum)
1. WI Wisconsin 29,397 0.86% 0.43% 10 302
2. MI Michigan 80,103 1.41% 0.71% 15 287
3. PA Pennsylvania 120,266 1.70% 0.85% 19 268
4. GA Georgia 115,100 2.19% 1.10% 16 252
5. NV Nevada 46,008 3.10% 1.55% 6 246
6. NC North Carolina 183,048 3.21% 1.61% 16 230
7. AZ Arizona 187,382 5.53% 2.76% 11 219
8. ME Maine's 2nd Congressional District 35,974 9.05% 4.52% 1 218
9. OH Ohio 646,417 11.21% 5.60% 17 201
10. NE Nebraska's 1st Congressional District 41,513 12.96% 6.48% 1 200
11. FL Florida 1,427,087 13.10% 6.55% 30 170
12. AK Alaska 44,432 13.14% 6.57% 3 167
13. IA Iowa 219,741 13.21% 6.60% 6 161
14. TX Texas 1,558,347 13.68% 6.84% 40 121
15. KS Kansas 213,949 16.12% 8.06% 6 115
16. SC South Carolina 455,295 17.87% 8.93% 9 106
17. MO Missouri 551,387 18.41% 9.20% 10 96
18. IN Indiana 556,744 18.96% 9.48% 11 85
19. MT Montana 120,173 19.93% 9.96% 4 81
20. NE Nebraska 194,821 20.46% 10.23% 2 79
21. UT Utah 321,252 21.58% 10.79% 6 73
22. LA Louisiana 441,635 22.01% 11.00% 8 65
23. MS Mississippi 281,076 22.89% 11.44% 6 59
24. SD South Dakota 125,222 29.19% 14.60% 3 56
25. TN Tennessee 910,600 29.72% 14.86% 11 45
26. AL Alabama 690,204 30.47% 15.24% 9 36
27. KY Kentucky 633,451 30.53% 15.27% 8 28
28. AR Arkansas 362,336 30.64% 15.32% 6 22
29. OK Oklahoma 536,614 34.26% 17.13% 7 15
30. ND North Dakota 134,178 36.45% 18.22% 3 12
31. ID Idaho 330,274 36.49% 18.25% 4 8
32. WV West Virginia 319,247 41.86% 20.93% 4 4
33. WY Wyoming 123,106 45.76% 22.88% 3 1
34. NE Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District 167,944 53.60% 26.80% 1 0
2024 Election Resources