Democratic Swing States 2028

This page contains information on the Democratic battleground. The page has two main sections - Targets and Defence. Target states are states which the Democratic Party need to win (ordered from easiest to most difficult). Defence states are states which the Democratic Party currently hold and need to keep.

Contents

Here are the calculated target swing states for the Democratic Party in 2028:

Targets

Starting Electoral Votes: 226

RankStateNameMajority
Over D
Majority
%
Swing
Needed
EVEV
(sum)
1. WI Wisconsin 29,397 0.86% 0.43% 10 236
2. MI Michigan 80,103 1.41% 0.71% 15 251
3. PA Pennsylvania 120,266 1.70% 0.85% 19 270
4. GA Georgia 115,100 2.19% 1.10% 16 286
5. NV Nevada 46,008 3.10% 1.55% 6 292
6. NC North Carolina 183,048 3.21% 1.61% 16 308
7. AZ Arizona 187,382 5.53% 2.76% 11 319
8. ME Maine's 2nd Congressional District 35,974 9.05% 4.52% 1 320
9. OH Ohio 646,417 11.21% 5.60% 17 337
10. NE Nebraska's 1st Congressional District 41,513 12.96% 6.48% 1 338
11. FL Florida 1,427,087 13.10% 6.55% 30 368
12. AK Alaska 44,432 13.14% 6.57% 3 371
13. IA Iowa 219,741 13.21% 6.60% 6 377
14. TX Texas 1,558,347 13.68% 6.84% 40 417
15. KS Kansas 213,949 16.12% 8.06% 6 423
16. SC South Carolina 455,295 17.87% 8.93% 9 432
17. MO Missouri 551,387 18.41% 9.20% 10 442
18. IN Indiana 556,744 18.96% 9.48% 11 453
19. MT Montana 120,173 19.93% 9.96% 4 457
20. NE Nebraska 194,821 20.46% 10.23% 2 459
21. UT Utah 321,252 21.58% 10.79% 6 465
22. LA Louisiana 441,635 22.01% 11.00% 8 473
23. MS Mississippi 281,076 22.89% 11.44% 6 479
24. SD South Dakota 125,222 29.19% 14.60% 3 482
25. TN Tennessee 910,600 29.72% 14.86% 11 493
26. AL Alabama 690,204 30.47% 15.24% 9 502
27. KY Kentucky 633,451 30.53% 15.27% 8 510
28. AR Arkansas 362,336 30.64% 15.32% 6 516
29. OK Oklahoma 536,614 34.26% 17.13% 7 523
30. ND North Dakota 134,178 36.45% 18.22% 3 526
31. ID Idaho 330,274 36.49% 18.25% 4 530
32. WV West Virginia 319,247 41.86% 20.93% 4 534
33. WY Wyoming 123,106 45.76% 22.88% 3 537
34. NE Nebraska's 3rd Congressional District 167,944 53.60% 26.80% 1 538

Here are the currently held Democratic states:

Defence

Starting Electoral Votes: 226

RankStateNameMajority%
Majority
Swing
To Defeat
EVEV
(sum)
1. NH New Hampshire 22,965 2.78% 1.39% 4 222
2. MN Minnesota 137,947 4.24% 2.12% 10 212
3. NE Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District 14,636 4.59% 2.30% 1 211
4. VA Virginia 259,681 5.77% 2.88% 13 198
5. NJ New Jersey 252,498 5.91% 2.95% 14 184
6. NM New Mexico 55,411 6.00% 3.00% 5 179
7. ME Maine 57,675 6.94% 3.47% 2 177
8. IL Illinois 613,784 10.90% 5.45% 19 158
9. CO Colorado 350,718 10.98% 5.49% 10 148
10. NY New York 1,040,296 12.59% 6.30% 28 120
11. RI Rhode Island 70,750 13.78% 6.89% 4 116
12. OR Oregon 321,120 14.31% 7.15% 8 108
13. CT Connecticut 255,135 14.50% 7.25% 7 101
14. DE Delaware 75,407 14.70% 7.35% 3 98
15. WA Washington 714,926 18.22% 9.11% 12 86
16. CA California 3,194,482 20.13% 10.07% 54 32
17. ME Maine's 1st Congressional District 93,649 21.59% 10.80% 1 31
18. HI Hawaii 119,383 23.10% 11.55% 4 27
19. MA Massachusetts 875,215 25.20% 12.60% 11 16
20. MD Maryland 867,027 28.54% 14.27% 10 6
21. VT Vermont 116,396 31.51% 15.75% 3 3
22. DC District of Columbia 273,109 83.81% 41.90% 3 0
2024 Election Resources